Chris Kuehnhold
Writer
The first college football playoff rankings are due out Tuesday. With that in mind, it is time to do a deep dive on how the actual playoff would look for each conference. The intent is to identify teams with the best chances going forward, not to seed them in any way.
ACC
I will begin in the Atlantic Coast Conference. I believe this conference will likely get three teams in. I have Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Virginia as those three teams. Currently they all have 1 loss on the season. It would be incredibly hard to keep all three out if they continue on this path.
BIG 10
In the Big 10, the picture is much clearer. Currently you have five teams with one loss or less in conference play. Those teams are Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan. Iowa hosts Oregon on November 8th. Should Iowa lose that game (Oregon will be favored), that will be their third loss on the season and they would be out of the conversation. Michigan already has two losses and likely would not jump ahead of any other two loss team nationally. I see three teams here making the twelve team playoff.
BIG 12
In the Big 12, things are very clear here. Texas Tech and BYU are the only teams with any real chance of making the CFP. Currently I only see one of those teams making the field-the winner of the Big 12 championship game.
GROUP OF 5
This is an interesting situation here. Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Memphis, and James Madison are all in the race. Navy still has Notre Dame, Memphis, and South Florida to go through. Any loss takes them out. South Florida is on life support already with two losses. In reality, this is coming down to Memphis, North Texas, and James Madison. JMU is damaged by a very weak schedule and both North Texas and Memphis are ahead of them. The winner of the American Conference championship game will take the prize of being in the college football playoff.
SEC
Now we come the the most flexible conference of all. There is no question that the Southeastern Conference is going to get four teams in. Currently, there are three teams that I would consider as locks-Texas AM, Alabama, and Ole Miss. The fourth team would come from the group that have two losses currently along with Georgia-Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas. At this point one would have to put Georgia on top of that pile with Texas a close second. However, do not fret, things will sort themselves out as Georgia has two massive games left with Texas and Georgia Tech. The possibility exists that they could lose both and finish with three losses. I cannot see a scenario where any three loss team will be included.
As for Vanderbilt, the path is clear. The Commodores must win all three of their remaining games. Hosting Auburn and Kentucky are absolute must win games. Any falter against those two that they will be heavy favorites to beat and the life support would be cut off immediately. The big game with the most excitement looms on Thanksgiving weekend with a trip to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers. By beating the Vols for the first time since 2018, the Commodores would put themselves in the conversation with a 10-2 record, but it is a steep hill to climb.
WILDCARD
There is one wildcard in all of this. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The possibility remains that they finish the season at 10-2 overall and on a ten game win streak. It would be incredibly difficult to keep them out, however, they do not have any conference affiliation and their schedule has not been as difficult as others. If they were to be included, the loser in that scenario would likely be the ACC or the SEC. This is worth watching.
FINAL TALLY
ACC-3 teams (Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia)
BIG 10-3 teams (Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon)
BIG 12-1 team (Texas Tech, BYU)
SEC- 4 teams (Texas AM, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt)
G5-1 team (Memphis, North Texas, James Madison, Navy)
Wildcard-1 team (Notre Dame)
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