Stephen Leonard
Writer
Penn State vs No. 1 Ohio State
Date: Nov. 1, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
T.V.: Fox Betting Odds: Ohio State -20.5 Bet MGM
This iteration of Penn State (3-4, 0-4) vs Ohio State (8-0, 5-0) had lofty preseason expectations. Ohio State has held up its end of the bargain, remaining undefeated and number one in the country. Penn State, on the other hand, comes in with an interim head coach in Terry Smith and a redshirt freshman backup quarterback.
Despite Penn State’s lackluster start to Big Ten play, emotions will run high. Jim Knowles left the 2024 national title team at the altar, becoming a no-show at the national title celebration last January. Day answered most questions referring to the Knowles’ departure as you would expect, politically, but he ended the conversation with a look. I was in the team meeting room, and it struck me with intensity. A look that seemingly illustrated, Day took the Knowles departure as a personal slight.
Speaking about the emotional components, a product of Olentangy High School heads to the banks of the Olentangy River to take on his home state Buckeyes. Ethan Grunkemeyer from the Columbus suburb of Lewis Center will need to be electric to find success against the No. 1 defense in the nation. It certainly provides some extra motivation to be back home performing in front of family and friends. Like always, Ohio boys with a chance to prove their worth against Ohio State can be dangerous. They always give me flashbacks to RB Ryan Brewer, former Mr. Ohio, who ended up at South Carolina.
Penn State will be marching into The Shoe with a top-five pass defense. Julian Sayin will have to be extraordinarily good, just as he has been to date this season. Jim Knowles may not be getting much credit this year, but the pass defense only gives up 145 yards per game. Of course, they haven’t faced a passing offense anywhere near Ohio State’s 24th-ranked passing attack (279.7 yards per game), and Sayin is completing 80% of his throws. The best passing attack Penn State has faced is Oregon, checking in at 53rd in the nation (246.9 yards per game). The next best is FIU at 95th (206.1 yards per game).
As I’m writing, I just talked myself off that ledge and now expect Ohio State’s passing game to have little trouble with Jim Knowles’ defense. The 20.5 point spread is spot on in my opinion, but this is a game I stay away from with my money. Ryan Day said in his weekly Tuesday press conference, this is still a match-up game. If forced to bet, I’d lay the points, but a close hard hard-fought victory is not out of the realm of possibilities.
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