Brian Buckeyes Stats
Writer
In the high-stakes world of college football, few comparisons carry the weight of a Heisman Trophy winner. Joe Burrow’s 2019 LSU season wasn’t just dominant – it was a demolition, a 15-0 national championship joyride fueled by pinpoint throws to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. But fast-forward to 2025, and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, a redshirt freshman in just his eighth career start, is turning heads with stats that don’t just echo Burrow’s magic – they surpass it in the metrics that matter most: raw accuracy, explosive deep-ball wizardry, and unflappable poise under fire.
The conversation ignited with an October 24 X thread from Brian Walton (@briancwalton78, Brian Buckeyes Stats, and contributor to College Football Backers), the first to draw the bold parallels between Sayin’s rookie command and Burrow’s senior dominance. Exploding to over 108,000 views, it sparked a firestorm among LSU fans but proved prescient, blending poise metrics, defensive matchups, and receiver talent to show Sayin’s efficiency as foundational—not fleeting.
The buzz amplified this week on the Downs 2 Business podcast, hosted by brothers Josh and Caleb Downs and powered by DAZN. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs – Sayin’s teammate – asked about his inspirations, and Sayin named Joe Burrow without pause. On the @downs2business show, Caleb pressed: “Is there anybody that Julian watches that I feel like, hey, my game resembles that?” Sayin leaned in: “I try to model my game after Burrow. He’s kind of like a point guard, getting the ball into playmakers’ hands. Same leadership style, I’m not super outspoken, kind of like him.” Sayin hit the mark: his point-guard savvy in funneling dimes to stars like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate channels Burrow’s wizardry—but as the numbers below prove, it’s amplified, converting those touches into explosive gains and scores with a precision that edges the Heisman blueprint.
Extending that early insight with updated PFF data through eight games (as of Ohio State’s latest blowout), the narrative sharpens. Burrow, a fourth-year senior with Ohio State roots, thrived on volume and explosiveness. Sayin? He’s forging efficiency gems against tougher foes, climbing pockets like a vet and lasering 30-yard daggers. Let’s dive in – these numbers are the real fireworks.
Burrow’s 2019 performance through eight games was a gunslinger’s dream: 78.8% completion on 260 attempts for 2,802 yards, 30 TDs, and just four picks. It screamed “Heisman” from Week 1. But Sayin, in Ryan Day’s balanced Buckeye attack, has lapped him in pure accuracy – a redshirt freshman’s audacity against a senior’s polish.
PFF’s adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%), factoring out drops and throwaways, seals it: Sayin’s 86.1% tops Burrow’s 83.9%. He’s layering dimes to Smith and Tate across the spectrum—from quick slants to deep bombs—with a tiny 1.9% drop rate (vs. Burrow’s 4.9%). That early thread spotlighted Sayin’s 85.5% ADJ% through seven games – now it’s elite.
Sayin’s dissecting, not forcing. Against an average total defense ranked 61st nationally (240 yards allowed per game), he undercuts Burrow’s INT total (3 vs. 4) on 42 fewer attempts. Critics dismissing Ohio State’s slate miss the math: Sayin’s opponents rank tougher overall (total defenses average 61 vs. Burrow’s 69) and in pass coverage (average rank 61, 240 YPG vs. Burrow’s 69, 243 YPG). This isn’t just riding a loaded offense’s wave—it’s Sayin as the catalyst, his surgical strikes surging it to new heights.
Burrow’s deep game was highlight-reel gold – 11 touchdowns on 35 attempts (20+ yards), aerial circus supreme. But Sayin? He’s the sniper Burrow aspired to be: more efficient, steadier under pressure, deadlier per toss. Through eight games, Sayin’s 10 deep TDs on 27 attempts hit a scorching 37% TD rate (vs. Burrow’s 31.4%), with zero picks and a YPA evisceration: 29.6 to 21.3.
PFF crowns it: Sayin’s deep grade at 97.5 (Burrow’s 97.0), but 798 deep yards on fewer throws – deeper targets too (33.2 vs. 29.1). The tape? Against Penn State’s fifth-ranked pass defense, Sayin froze a 52-yard rope to Smith through doubles. Burrow owned Joe Brady’s air raid; Sayin threads Brian Hartline’s pro scheme impossibilities, hitting 74.1% deep throws (vs. 62.9% for Burrow) with one turnover-worthy play.
Sayin’s deep approach prioritizes precision over sheer volume, converting 74.1% of those high-stakes throws (vs. Burrow’s 62.9%) while posting zero interceptions—a testament to his measured decision-making. With just one turnover-worthy play deep, he’s transforming potential risks into consistent rewards, refining Burrow’s blueprint into something even more reliable for a redshirt freshman. As Sayin shared on Downs 2 Business, emulating Burrow’s point-guard style has fueled his growth, but these metrics show he’s building on it with a steadiness that already stands out.
Burrow’s footwork? Textbook drops, anticipatory sets – but heat-exposed cracks: 16 sacks (5.4% rate), 21 scrambles on 297 drop backs. Sayin? Pocket poet: halved sack rate (2.2%, five total), 9.1% pressure-to-sack (vs. 17.8%), seven scrambles. Seven throwaways (vs. Burrow’s two) yell smarts – live to play, climbing pockets with extra lives.
PFF passing grade: 93.1 Sayin, 92.3 Burrow; his 2.8-second release trails 2.75s but risks deeper. Sayin’s “climb and fire” – base set, hips firing shoulders – slashes hitches, per breakdowns. Vs. Wisconsin’s blitz? Sidestepped rushers seamless, 28-yard strike. Burrow bailed (15 scrambles through seven); Sayin structures chaos to calm. Poise past 19 – redshirt to Heisman runway.
The point lands harder now: Sayin’s lower TWP rate (1.3% vs. 2.6%) isn’t luck – it’s footwork finesse and mental steel, forged in Day’s lab against Big Ten bullies.
Joe Burrow’s 2019 supernova blazed a trail of Heisman glory, but Julian Sayin’s 2025 black hole of efficiency is devouring every doubter in its path—with blinding accuracy, booming deep shots, and a poise that purrs under pressure. As Brian Walton’s trailblazing thread ignited the debate and the Downs 2 Business podcast echoed the parallels straight from Sayin’s own words, the numbers seal the deal: tougher defenses faced head-on, elite receivers mirroring the Jefferson-Chase dynamic (Smith and Tate thriving on Sayin’s even catchier throws), and a redshirt freshman’s fire outpacing a fourth-year senior’s steel. Through eight games, Sayin emerges as the superior overall passer—boasting a 93.1 PFF grade, cleaner decision-making, and an explosive ceiling that redefines rookie brilliance.
He’s the superior deep-ball maestro, full stop: a scorching 29.6 YPA on those 30-yard daggers that even Burrow’s Heisman cannon could only aspire to sustain. And on footwork? Sayin’s glide is generational poetry—transmuting pocket pressure into calm artistry where Burrow, for all his brilliance, occasionally yielded to the storm.
Of course, not everyone bought the hype from the jump. Early this season, @CFBNerds – the X account behind College Football Nerds – cast doubt on Sayin’s deep ball, questioning whether Ohio State could generate an “effective deep ball” given his low volume in the 20-40 yard range during preseason glimpses. Oof. Fast-forward through eight games, with Sayin torching that narrative at 74.1% deep completion and a scorching 29.6 YPA? Consider the playful bus officially thrown: those nitpicks look downright prophetic in hindsight—when a redshirt freshman is out-Burrowing a Heisman legend, the script’s been flipped.
With Ohio State playoff-bound, cue Maroon 5: Sayin moves like Jagger, throws like a king. Heisman whispers are deafening—2025 could crown a freshman phenom who outshines even Burrow’s blueprint. Buckle up; the Sayin era is here, and it’s rewriting expectations.
For more Buckeye breakdowns, follow Brian Buckeyes Stats (@briancwalton78) on X and check College Football Backers.
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