Bryson Blue
Writer
In theory, the race for the Big 12 Championship title game should be straightforward. However, in the beautifully chaotic sport of college football, things are rarely so easy. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) are at the top of the conference, controlling their own destiny. The BYU Cougars (9-1, 6-1) are dwelling just below.
All the Red Raiders and Cougars need to do is win. As long as they take care of business, both should have a spot in the title game and an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. But if either team makes a mistake, things could get interesting in a hurry.
There are still six teams standing in contention for a spot in the Big 12 title game, some needing more help than others. Again, all Texas Tech and BYU need to do is win. For the Red Raiders, if they beat the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-7, 2-6) after a bye week, they secure their spot. If they lose, their biggest threat is a three-way tie with both Utah and Arizona State, as well as other dominoes falling.
After the Cougars got beaten down by the Red Raiders weeks ago, their “clear” path is slightly harder. The Cougars get to play the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-3, 5-2) in a massive game at Nippert Stadium. If they win this game and the UCF game, they are in. There are scenarios where BYU could clinch before playing UCF. But if BYU loses either game, doors start to open up.
A loss at Cincinnati would then require BYU to receive help from other Big 12 teams to get back into the title game. The Cougars would need both Cincinnati and Arizona State to lose another game. With the Bearcats playing TCU, and the Sun Devils playing both Arizona and Colorado, BYU’s chances would look grim.
Outside of Texas Tech and BYU, all of Cincinnati, Arizona State, Houston, and Utah have some chance to make the big game. For any of those four to play in Arlington, there is going to have to be some really unlikely and odd football games played. But there is a chance.
The Utah Utes (8-2, 5-2) are tied with the Houston Cougars (8-2, 5-2) for third in the Big 12. The Utes have head-to-head losses against both Texas Tech and BYU, but their overall strength of conference schedule can help them if a major two-loss tie breaks out for a spot.
First of all, in the most likely path for the Utes, Utah would need to beat Kansas State and Kansas. Then, the Utes need BYU to lose its final two games, and TCU to beat Cincinnati. If those boxes are checked and Texas Tech beats West Virginia, then the Utes would get a rematch with Texas Tech in the title game.
Houston would have to beat TCU and Baylor. Even if they do that, they need Utah and Arizona State to lose a game, and will require BYU and Cincinnati to lose the rest of their games. After losing to Arizona, if Cincinnati wants to make the championship game, it must win out and hope for a mess of ties.
There is a scenario where the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-3, 5-2) could sneak in, despite losing their star quarterback Sam Leavitt to injury, and, reportedly, the transfer portal next year. It would require Texas Tech to lose to West Virginia, which is already an unlikely path. BYU and Utah would need to drop a game out of their final two, then Arizona State would be in.
The race really can be a mess if the top two dogs get put down. It can be extremely confusing, and there are multiple caveats and possibilities not covered here. However, if Texas Tech and BYU win their final matchups like they are favored to, it’s cut clean and clear. It all starts this week when BYU travels to play Cincinnati. If BYU wins, there isn’t chaos yet. If they don’t, make sure to pay attention to Utah, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati.
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Writer
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